As I write this post, millions of people are on the verge of making the most important decision of the year...a decision that will have a profound effect on their lives and the lives of those around them... should they back the older greying gelding running alongside that young buxom Filly or should they back the younger black stallion to lead a nation...to victory in the Melbourne Cup?
As I browse the form guide and Betfair.com, It is interesting to note that in the blue jersey, 'Nom de Jeu' is by far the favourite to win whilst the 'Red Lord' and 'Prize Lady' are well an truly outside running at odds of 0ver 100 - 1. It makes me wonder whether the victor in the Melbourne Cup might be an accurate predictor of that other insignificant event to be decided tomorrow...
Apparently I am not the only one thinking along those lines Keith Thompson, a writer for the Huffington Post a completely online based newspaper which in itself is a fascinating business, wrote a very interesting article showing that 'Hardcore Gamblers' may provide the most accurate election forecasts. Arguing that people are more likely to be truthful and think hard when they let their money do the talking as opposed to when they are merely asked their opinion by a pollster. He gives the example that halfway through 2004 when CNN had John Kerry taking the lead, Betfair had George W at 91% certain to win, not only that but Betfair called all 50 states correctly.
Another blog, Barack by Popular Demand has taken a similar approach to me and yet another similar thought here
With this in mind, I'm going to listen to the bookies and put my money 'Nom de Jeu' and cross my fingers and my toes... if only there was a more effective way for me to influence the race and make sure the good guy wins...
By the way if you are outside Australia and want to watch the Melbourne Cup you should be able to do so via Bigpond at 04:00 GMT.
Apparently I am not the only one thinking along those lines Keith Thompson, a writer for the Huffington Post a completely online based newspaper which in itself is a fascinating business, wrote a very interesting article showing that 'Hardcore Gamblers' may provide the most accurate election forecasts. Arguing that people are more likely to be truthful and think hard when they let their money do the talking as opposed to when they are merely asked their opinion by a pollster. He gives the example that halfway through 2004 when CNN had John Kerry taking the lead, Betfair had George W at 91% certain to win, not only that but Betfair called all 50 states correctly.
Another blog, Barack by Popular Demand has taken a similar approach to me and yet another similar thought here
With this in mind, I'm going to listen to the bookies and put my money 'Nom de Jeu' and cross my fingers and my toes... if only there was a more effective way for me to influence the race and make sure the good guy wins...
By the way if you are outside Australia and want to watch the Melbourne Cup you should be able to do so via Bigpond at 04:00 GMT.
1 comments:
Three words..."Wisdom Of Crowds"...great book...you'd probably like it.
Post a Comment