Everyone's a Winner... (unless you bet on Nom de Jeu)

First of all congratulations to the United states and President Obama - here's to a better world!

Secondly an apology to anyone who followed my link to the 'Telstra Bigpond' Melbourne Cup coverage.  If your experience was anything like mine and the coverage lagged when your horse was winning, cut back in as soon as the race was over and you ran out of your Dorm in your Swedish halls of residence, jumped on the couch and started whooping  'show me the money, show me the money' before realising much to your embarassment (wow a triple Homage to Tom Cruise!), that your horse had come no where near winning... then I am truly sorry.

So it turns out the Melbourne Cup was not as an exact a predictor of the US election as I thought it might have been but I should point out that neither the 'Red Lord' (although this particular horse did make a very eloquent concession speech)  or the 'Prize Lady' came in anywhere near winning but neither did the horse in the blue jersey Nom de Jeu (much to my disappointment).  

However, I was not completely wrong not only did Obama win the US election (You have all probably seen it but in the interest of fair and balanced coverage and because it is a great speech, here is the link), but it also turns out that the Australian media cares more about the winner of the Melbourne Cup.  The heading picture was taken from a great little website called Newseum which catalogues the front pages of Newspapers around the world (for a Wikinomics perspective on this click here). 

Who Will Win?

As I write this post, millions of people are on the verge of making the most important decision of the year...a decision that will have a profound effect on their lives and the lives of those around them... should they back the older greying gelding running alongside that young buxom Filly or should they back the younger black stallion to lead a nation...to victory in the Melbourne Cup?

As I browse the form guide and Betfair.com, It is interesting to note that in the blue jersey, 'Nom de Jeu' is by far the favourite to win whilst the 'Red Lord' and 'Prize Lady' are well an truly outside running at odds of 0ver 100 - 1. It makes me wonder whether the victor in the Melbourne Cup might be an accurate predictor of that other insignificant event to be decided tomorrow...

Apparently I am not the only one thinking along those lines Keith Thompson, a writer for the Huffington Post a completely online based newspaper which in itself is a fascinating business, wrote a very interesting article showing that 'Hardcore Gamblers' may provide the most accurate election forecasts. Arguing that people are more likely to be truthful and think hard when they let their money do the talking as opposed to when they are merely asked their opinion by a pollster. He gives the example that halfway through 2004 when CNN had John Kerry taking the lead, Betfair had George W at 91% certain to win, not only that but Betfair called all 50 states correctly.

Another blog, Barack by Popular Demand has taken a similar approach to me and yet another similar thought here

With this in mind, I'm going to listen to the bookies and put my money 'Nom de Jeu' and cross my fingers and my toes... if only there was a more effective way for me to influence the race and make sure the good guy wins...

By the way if you are outside Australia and want to watch the Melbourne Cup you should be able to do so via Bigpond at 04:00 GMT.